The chief global strategist at JPMorgan Chase says the US may avoid a recession, but the bank’s economic outlook is not yet optimistic.
In a new interview on CNBC Television, David Kelly says that tariffs and other economic factors may cause the country’s economy to slow down in the months ahead.
However, he says that the economy may be strong enough to weather the slow growth impacts without falling into an outright recession.
“No, we’re not [seeing impacts now]. At the moment, I’d have to say the tariff pullback and also this big tax bill, which is going to put stimulus into 2026 and a little stimulus in 2025, that takes us from more than likely going to have a recession to less than likely we’re going to have a recession this year. So I think the economy may be resilient enough to avoid a recession, but it’s going to be slow growth for a while.”
Kelly also says that consumer spending is likely to contract given the uncertainty of the economy, as well as potential inflation from tariff impacts in the coming months.
“Consumers are resilient, but there comes a point where you squeeze them enough in terms of tariffs, you’re collecting on the student loans again, and then just the general worry, and, of course, the cutbacks to the government sector, all these things I think are beginning to weigh on consumers. I think it is slowing the economy down, still not willing to say recession.”
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