Dogecoin’s current trading range between $0.18 and $0.24 has largely mimicked the steady accumulation phases seen in past bull cycles. Although its price action appears muted on shorter timeframes, a technical analysis of broader market cycles shows that the meme coin may be nearing the end of its consolidation phase and entering the early stages of a breakout trajectory.
Fibonacci Pattern Points To Bullish Continuation
According to a recent post by crypto analyst Javon Marks on the social media platform X, Dogecoin’s price movements over the years reveal a highly consistent relationship with Fibonacci extension levels, especially the 1.618 level. Marks highlighted that in the two previous primary cycles, 2014 to 2017 (Cycle 1) and 2017 to 2021 (Cycle 2), Dogecoin exceeded the 1.618 Fibonacci extension measured from its respective accumulation bases in their bear market lows.
In Cycle 1, DOGE went from a 0 Fibonacci level in the 2015 bear market low to a peak above the 1.618 Fibonacci level in 2018. This translated to a move from $0.00009 to $0.00748, representing an increase of more than 8,200% from its cycle low.
Cycle 2 followed a similar structure, where the pattern of surpassing the 1.618 Fib level held true. DOGE initially consolidated around its 0 Fib baseline near $0.00168 throughout most of 2020 during a prolonged bear market. Then, in early 2021, the meme coin began to surge aggressively, first reclaiming the 1.0 extension level around $0.11773 and eventually moving beyond the 1.618 extension of $0.39921. This breakout culminated in Dogecoin reaching its current all-time high of approximately $0.7326 in May 2021, a 43,000% increase from its cycle low.
Dogecoin’s Next Price Target
As illustrated in the accompanying chart, the Fibonacci projection for the current Dogecoin cycle begins at the 2022 bear market low of $0.06036. This price point forms the zero baseline for what is now being tracked as Cycle 3.
Keeping in mind Dogecoin’s cyclical behavior, this places the current 1.618 Fibonacci extension target at $2.28008 for the ongoing cycle. Notably, the 1.0 Fib extension level was already confirmed at $0.56953 following Dogecoin’s earlier all-time high. Reaching this price target would translate to a 3670% increase from the current price level, but Dogecoin could repeat what happened in Cycle 2 and even exceed the 1.618 Fib level.
Notably, each breakout not only exceeded the Fibonacci level but also reset the base for the next macro cycle. Therefore, a successful move above $2.28 would complete the third full cycle and lay the groundwork for DOGE’s long-term valuation above the $1 threshold even in the next bear market. At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.1912, up by 5.5% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
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